Wildfire Wednesdays #157: Urban Conflagrations

Happy Friday, FAC Community!

You have seen the term “urban conflagration” in past FACNM newsletters, but what does it mean in the context of your personal wildfire risk? We’re seeing more and more examples of fires that start in an undeveloped natural area but quickly move toward and into urban areas, transitioning from consuming trees and vegetation to consuming homes, businesses, and other structures (click the links for lessons from the Marshall Wildfire - 2021, Lahaina Fire - 2023, Salt/South Fork Complex - 2024, Palisades and Eaton Fires - 2025). Today we’ll dive into how fires make this jump, their damage and cost statistics, who is at risk, and what you can do to lower your risk rating (including information on recently passed legislation that will help move the needle on risk mitigation and resources for New Mexicans).

This Fire Friday features:

Be well and have a happy national wildfire preparedness day this weekend!
-Rachel

Planning for and Learning from Urban Conflagrations

Defining the problem: what are ‘urban conflagrations"‘?

“With the Oakland Hills Tunnel Fire of 1991, built environment conflagrations returned to United States cities. Wildfire, which had been viewed as a wildland and rural community problem, now was a catalyst for conflagration. Over the next three decades, the most catastrophic wildfires were often those where fire entered communities of the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and spread into suburban neighborhoods as a conflagration of the built environment ensued. Structural conflagration is defined as fire encompassing all of a given structure. Here we will focus on the concept of a built environment conflagration resulting from wildfires, where fire spreads uncontrollably from structure-to-structure” (IBHS, 2023).

Image from Headwaters Economics report; data sourced from Wildfire Risk to Communities and analyzed by Headwaters Economics. This analysis shows that more than 1,100 communities in 32 states across the United States share similarities with communities recently devastated by urban wildfires.

In the wake of the Los Angeles wildfires, Headwaters Economics published “America’s Urban Wildfire Crisis: More Than 1,100 Communities at Risk,” using data from the Forest Service’s Wildfire Risk to Communities project. From the report: “the fires in Los Angeles follow a pattern starting to become familiar. As was seen in Hawaii’s Lahaina Fire, Colorado’s Marshall Fire, and Oregon’s Almeda Fire, wind-driven embers from nearby wildfires ignite homes, which spread fire rapidly to neighboring homes, becoming an urban conflagration. Also known as urban wildfires, these large, difficult-to-control fires may start as wildfires but, upon entering communities, buildings become the source of fuel. It is the building-to-building transmission that causes widespread destruction that can occur in communities of any size.”

Headwaters Economics has created an interactive map that shows communities with risk factors that put them in a similar hazard category as the neighborhoods that burned in LA.

Urban conflagration risk factors:

  • High likelihood of wildfire on adjacent lands

  • Many homes exposed (dense construction)

  • Extreme winds

  • Lack of ignition-resistant construction materials

  • Local risk factors, such as

    • predominant winds or local wind conditions,

    • ignition sources and locations,

    • fuel moisture,

    • firefighting resources,

    • housing arrangement, and

    • building design and construction

It is important to remember that urban conflagrations are characterized by fire moving from structure to structure in a densely built environment, but it’s not just cities that are at risk. Recent fires, like the Hermit’s Peak-Calf Canyon Complex, show that many homes can burn in rural communities as well, especially when some of the same risk factors, such as extreme winds and a high likelihood of fire on adjacent lands, are present.

What is the cost?

Wildfires that become urban conflagrations are becoming more frequent and damaging, with some of the most destructive occurring in the past decade. A separate analysis found that, over the past several decades, wildfire risk and its associated costs and impacts on communities has been increasing across the United States. Between 2018 and 2021, wildfires in the U.S. were associated with over $79.8 billion in costs, and fire years (and expenses) have only inflated since then with the return of the urban conflagration. According to data from the First Street Foundation, 50% of all addresses in the lower 48 states face some degree of wildfire risk; in some rural states, more than 90% of properties face some risk. In 2022 when the data was released, more than 686,000 properties at risk of wildfire faced at least a 1% chance of burning that year. This means that over a 30 year mortgage period, those homes have a 26% chance of burning. (New York Times, 2022).

Source: First Street Foundation
The future projection reflects a warming scenario in which countries take measures to curb emissions over the next 30 years roughly in line with pledges under the Paris climate agreement. The future risk map reflects changes in temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors, but the model relies on historical weather, development patterns and other inputs.

To learn more about wildfire risk to homes and tools that can help encourage fire preparedness actions at the individual and community level, read Wildfire Wednesday #152 on Community Ordinances and Codes for Fire Protection.

What can be done to reduce urban conflagrations?

“Many well-researched actions can help reduce community wildfire risk, but they require a shift in local, state and federal approaches to wildfire management. Beyond fire suppression and vegetation management, construction of wildfire-resistant homes, neighborhoods, and communities must also be prioritized.

“A focus on the built environment helps address the fundamental causes of disasters... Urban conflagrations often begin with windblown embers flying ahead of a wildfire front, igniting spot fires that expose homes to flames and heat. The speed at which a spot fire becomes an urban conflagration can be influenced by construction materials, landscaping, and the proximity of homes to each other. Building and retrofitting homes and neighborhoods to minimize places where embers can ignite is not only necessary, research has shown it can be practical and cost-effective. Reducing wildfire risk communitywide can also help keep insurance markets accessible and potentially avoid billions in disaster recovery costs that often fall on taxpayers” (Headwaters Economics, 2025).

Resources

  • The US Fire Administration Wildfire Evacuation page has guidance for encouraging community members to plan, prepare and practice before a wildfire occurs. There are also tips for community-level actions, such as shareable evacuation planning toolkits, working to create healthy landscapes and defensible space, and consulting with local foresters.

  • The US Forest Service’s Wildfire Risk to Communities tool allows users to explore their local wildfire risk and take steps to reduce that risk with free resources. These resources are organized into categories such as ignition-resistant homes, land use planning, evacuation and readiness, vulnerable populations, and many more.

  • Simple techniques for home hardening, such as removing wooden fences within 5 feet of the home and replacing them with inflammable materials, in addition to creating defensible space, continue to be the best defense for individuals. Learn more about home hardening and improving your properties defensibility against wildfire in Wildfire Prepared Homes.

A WUI success story: Austin, TX

In 2020, Austin, Texas became a national leader when it comes to reducing the wildfire risk to homes and buildings in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI). In this ten-minute video produced by Headwaters Economics, leaders from Austin describe how they came to realize the magnitude of the wildfire threat, and how they brought together diverse interests to pass one of the most forward-looking WUI codes in the U.S.

Forestry and Wildfire in the 2025 Legislative Session

Several Senate and House bills related to forestry and fire preparedness passed (in part or in whole) and were signed into law during the 2025 New Mexico legislative session. This body of legislation will impact wildfire preparedness resources and expectations for home and landowners as it is implemented over the next few years. The New Mexico Energy, Minerals, and Natural Resources Department (EMNRD) - Forestry Division compiled a synopsis of the various bills and their biggest takeaways. Click on the image to view the synopsis in its entirety and read on for some highlights.


Senate Bill 33: Wildfire Prepared Act
Amends the New Mexico Fire Planning Task Force membership and duties to identify and map high-risk areas within the state, develop building code standards and defensible space requirements and ordinances to reduce wildfire threats, consider other fire suppression measures such as thinning, mitigation, prescribed burning, using wildfire-resistant, noncombustible or ignition resistant building materials to national standards for defensible space.

House Bill 553: Timber Grading Act
Allows for the creation of a structural timber grading certification program accessible to sawmill owners and their employees to provide training on structural timber grading and labeling by developing a state-specific system to grade and label structural timber.

Senate Joint Memorial 1:
Makes recommendations on 1. business opportunities, 2. reducing the cost of moving wood to mills for processing, 3. reviewing successful wood utilization programs out-of-state, 4. existing incentives for wood product industry expansion, and 5. efforts to ensure that healthy forests reduce wildfire risk to expedite forest restoration throughout economic development in New Mexico.

Senate Memorial 2:
Creates a wildfire study group to develop approaches to address and mitigate wildfire in NM. The study group will develop and make recommendations to the legislature on a statewide approach to address, avoid and mitigate wildfires including recommendations for necessary funding and proposed legislation.

House Bill 175: Amendment to the Forest and Watershed Restoration Act (FAWRA)
Prioritizes, maps, and allows for the creation of fire buffers in and around wildland urban interfaces. This will allow the Forestry Division to utilize FAWRA funding on private lands to implement or create fuel buffers around communities within the WUI, sets project eligibility requirements, and creates incentives to increase investments in watershed and community areas to manage forests and protect water sources.

Grants Tracking & Management Tips from FAC Net

Finding and sustaining funding for work across the FAC framework is a critical part of community wildfire resilience. The national FAC Network has launched a webpage that provides information and resources to help FAC practitioners identify, apply for, and manage funding for their work, with a particular focus on the specifics of federal funding sources. Visit www.fireadapted.org/funding-fac/ to view the grants database, learn about recurring funding opportunities for FAC work, and get tips and tricks for preparing for, applying to, and managing federal grants.

You can also learn about applying and reporting for federal grants by viewing the four-part archive of webinars hosted by FAC Net as part of their Community Navigator Project during the winter of 2024-2025. These trainings and resources can help communities better understand key requirements for successfully managing federal funding.

Additional Resources

Upcoming and recorded webinars

Fire Season 2024 Overview and 2025 Outlook - recording coming soon
On May 1, Dr. Zander Evans and Kerry Jones joined the Southwest Fire Science Consortium to review the facts and impacts of the 10 biggest fires in the Southwest in 2024 and to look ahead to the forecasted fire weather for 2025, with a focus on the spring - midsummer. Visit the Consortium’s ‘Products’ webpage to learn more and to view the recording (will be uploaded no later than 5/7)

Fire Smart Landscaping in New Mexico
In this webinar from FACNM, attendees will learn that reducing wildfire risk around the home doesn’t have to mean removing all vegetation cart blanche. With the right landscaping strategies, New Mexico residents can help protect their homes while still enjoying beautiful outdoor spaces. Speaker Angela Prada from New Mexico State University Cooperative Extension Service will explore:

  • Key traits of fire-resistant plants and recommended species for NM,

  • Strategic planting tips—like proper spacing and reducing density of flammable vegetation, and

  • Year-round maintenance practices to reduce wildfire risk

When: Thursday, May 22nd from 12:00-1:00pm
Where: Zoom, registration is required and the recording will be available following the webinar
Speaker: Angela Prada of NMSU Cooperative Extension Service

Funding opportunities

Last day to apply! FACNM Microgrant Program
Twice annually, FACNM accepts proposals for a small amount of seed funding (up to $2,000) to help Members and Leaders host events or educational opportunities to improve their community fire awareness and readiness. These proposals must demonstrate community benefit or FAC capacity building. The spring 2025 application period closes at midnight on May 2!

Ideal project proposals may include:

  • Wildfire preparedness events

    • Home hazard assessment day

    • Defensible space or home hardening community workday

    • Evacuation planning and education

    • Post-fire erosion mitigation preparation and information

    • SimTable hosting

  • Equipment rentals

  • Slash disposal

  • Proposal development/writing

  • Improving/expanding existing offering